Italian exports in the new international geoeconomic context

These are some of the key questions addressed in the new brief by the Sectoral Strategies and Impact Directorate, that analyses the evolution of Italian exports in the new international geoeconomic context, marked by the gradual shift away from the traditional globalisation paradigm and the emergence of economic security considerations. It highlights the factors behind the resilience of Italy’s productive system, the main risks and the opportunities for competitive repositioning.

Read the key messages and download the full document for further insights.

• The current international environment is marked by a weakening of the multilateral system and growing fragmentation in economic relations, with tariffs, restrictions and selective industrial policies being used more widely.
• Despite this, global trade remains at high levels, but its nature is changing: geopolitical distance is becoming a key factor in shaping flows of goods and capital.
• In this context, the European Union is shifting its policy framework towards strategic autonomy and economic security, while pursuing trade diversification through new free trade agreementsSeveral structural features influence the efficiency and competitiveness of the entire supply chain.

Italian exports confirm a significant capacity to withstand shocks, but in an increasingly selective and competitive environment:

• In 2025, Italian goods exports reached €643 billion, up 3.3% in value and 0.7% in volume, outperforming Italy’s main European peers;
• export resilience reflects strong geographical and product diversification, as well as a competitive positioning based on quality and presence in high-value global niches;
• the system is characterised by a broad base of exporting SMEs, alongside a smaller number of large firms, which together support the widespread presence of Made in Italy in international markets.

In this context, Italian exports are exposed to several risks. The main ones include:

• the strengthening of protectionism, especially in the United States;
• cost competitiveness, affected by high energy prices and freight-rate volatility;
• the competitive pressure from China, which now also affects medium-high technology segments;
• the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.

At the same time, several strategic priorities emerge to support the competitive positioning of Italian exports:

• leveraging the opportunities offered by European policies, particularly in strategic sectors linked to the energy transition, defence and technology value chains;
• strengthening Italy’s presence in non-EU markets through geographical diversification and the use of free trade agreements;
• expanding services exports, especially technical and engineering services, which can act as a driver for manufacturing exports;
• supporting technological innovation, a necessary condition to preserve Italy’s position in high-value-added niches.