The nuclear debate in Italy: state of the art and prospects

Introduction

Why has Italy gone back to talking about nuclear energy? How can it contribute to the decarbonisation of the production system? What are the most important obstacles to it becoming more widespread? What are the main policy options to encourage a return to nuclear power in the energy mix nearly 40 years on from the referendum that ruled out its use? These are some of the key questions of the new brief of the Sector Strategy and Impact Department, which analyses the state of the art and prospects for the most promising nuclear technologies in Italy and internationally, looking into the potential contribution to the challenges of the energy transition and energy security, while considering the critical factors to face and the potential competitive advantages to leverage.

Read the key messages of the study and download the document for all the insights

In 2023, 410 reactors were operating worldwide for a total capacity of 371 GW and an electricity production of 2,600 TWh – equalling around 9% globally – the lowest value for the last four decades and more than 45% below the peak figure of 17.5% recorded in 1996.
Currently, 62 projects are underway to build new reactors around the world (28 in China) for a production capacity of approximately 64 GW.
In the climate-neutral scenarios of the International Energy Agency, nuclear power generation would increase, concentrated mainly in China, to nearly 4,000 TWh in 2030 and to approximately 5,500 TWh in 2050. However, considering the steady growth in demand for electricity which has been predicted, the share of nuclear power would remain more or less stable over the next three decades, to fall to 7.7% in 2050.
In this context, Italy can rely on expertise along nearly the entire supply chain and can count on cutting-edge research. There are around 70 Italian companies specialised in the nuclear energy industry, confirming the strong resilience of this sector four decades on from Italy abandoning nuclear electricity production.
Behind the greater political intention and commitments to invest are the distinctive characteristics of the most recent technologies which could be applied in practice with the use of the first Small Modular Reactors (SMR). With their state-of-the-art technologies, these compact reactors could go into operation from as early on as the start of the next decade.
Specifically, these advanced, third-generation plants could potentially allow for:
- a reduction in construction times, because of their modularity;
- lower estimated costs in relation to their size and reduced project risks and, consequently, a better financing potential;
- greater safety, more flexibility in the choice of site and less water consumption and land use;
- the capacity to combine the production of electricity with heat for industrial use, to deliver a continual supply of green hydrogen and reduce the nuclear waste produced.
Nuclear power generation, in general, has particularly high investment costs, including the costs for decommissioning plants at the end of their working life, and only becomes financially sustainable over a long period of time.
Considering their relative technological immaturity and the demonstration stage of the plants being developed, the estimated costs for SMR also still vary considerably, and cannot be compared to sources which by now are consolidated. Then there are uncertainties over development times, technological and legal obstacles, and the matter of the public’s acceptance.
So the development of new power plants calls for public incentives that can protect operators from volatile electricity prices, while ensuring a foreseeable return in the long term, and guaranteeing the bankability of investment projects.
In this framework of contrasts, actions are needed to promote a concrete contribution to adding nuclear power to Italy’s electricity mix in fairly short times:
- defining as soon as possible a legal and regulatory framework that takes into account the distinctive aspects of the Italian context, creating the conditions functional to attracting investments that can help the sector take off;
- encouraging industrial capabilities and national research, assets and production expertise that can be used and/or converted for nuclear power generation;
- mapping and deploying possible sources of financing, including the possibilities of new EU legislation on state aid;
- strengthening European cooperation, in particular with major players that have already developed and manage nuclear power.

Read the brief (Available in Italian)