Study on growth scenarios following the implementation of the Italian plan
The mechanisms for transmitting the reforms included in the NRP to the real economy, the indicators that could be useful for monitoring their effects and the implications for Italy are the subject of the "The long-term challenge of the NRP is through reforms" brief, produced by CDP Think Tank and now available in the dedicated section of the website.
After describing the key features of the reforms included in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRP), the document discusses the mechanisms of transmission of reform-induced improvements, in the institutional environment and regulatory framework, to the real economy. A number of synthetic indicators are also presented that could potentially be useful in monitoring the contribution of the reforms to institutional quality, as are the main implications for the Italian economy related to the achievement of the objectives set out in the NRP.
The effects of the reforms would lead to an increase in the long-term growth path, consistently and sustainably reinforcing the effect of public investment linked to the NRP. Italy's GDP could return to 2007 levels, prior to the global financial crisis, as early as 2025, reaching a consistently higher level over the years than in a scenario without reforms.