Sustainable Public Transport: the case for electric

Introduction

What are the prospects for low-emission urban mobility on a global level? What targets and resources have been identified on a European level to meet the challenge of the energy transition in transport? What scope is there for establishing an Italian electric bus industry? These are the questions at the heart of the new brief, which analyses the characteristics of the electric bus market and looks at the prospects for a sector where the competitiveness of the country system and the quality of its citizens' lives depend on its development.

Read the key message from the report and download the document for further information.

Globally there are almost 600,000 electric buses for local public transport, accounting for 16% of the total fleet. Electric bus registrations are expected to cover all new vehicles in circulation by 2050.
In Europe, this growing demand will also be fuelled by Recovery Plan resources. For example, the Italian NRRP includes 3.6 billion euros for vehicle fleet renewal, in addition to the 3.7 billion euros allocated in the National Plan for Sustainable Mobility.
The projected resources, of which the first 600 million euros have already been allocated for the 2022-2026 period, should contribute to the purchase of more than 10,000 low-emission buses over a 6–10-year period. This means that demand for electric buses could reach 1,000/1,500 units per year, enabling a gradual replacement of a fleet that is particularly old compared to its main peers (average age of 12 years compared to around 7 on an EU level).
The global supply chain is highly concentrated, with China holding more than 90% of the market thanks to the presence of the two main players, Yutong and BYD. In the last few years, however, significant players have also been emerging in North America, with Proterra, and particularly in Europe, with Solaris, Volvo, VDL and Iveco collectively holding over 40% of the EU market in 2020.
Italy's supply chain is currently limited by the presence of only three electric bus manufacturers, Iveco, Rampini and Industria Italiana Autobus. The production capacity is still limited, although there is a broad spectrum of skills and technologies throughout the e-mobility chain.
In order to avoid that the huge amounts of available resources being used to finance more competitive foreign operators and to promote the growth of the Italian supply chain, the following actions are necessary: (i) the timely allocation of resources consistent with the pace of development of the domestic industry, (ii) capital injection capable of adequately sizing operators, (iii) appropriate public-private collaboration, and (iv) the development of a highly skilled workforce.

Read the brief (Available in Italian)